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Climate change and interconnected risks to sustainable development in the Mediterranean

Nature Climate Change volume 8, pages 972–980 (2018)Cite this article

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Abstract

Recent accelerated climate change has exacerbated existing environmental problems in the Mediterranean Basin that are caused by the combination of changes in land use, increasing pollution and declining biodiversity. For five broad and interconnected impact domains (water, ecosystems, food, health and security), current change and future scenarios consistently point to significant and increasing risks during the coming decades. Policies for the sustainable development of Mediterranean countries need to mitigate these risks and consider adaptation options, but currently lack adequate information — particularly for the most vulnerable southern Mediterranean societies, where fewer systematic observations schemes and impact models are based. A dedicated effort to synthesize existing scientific knowledge across disciplines is underway and aims to provide a better understanding of the combined risks posed.

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Fig. 1: Historic warming of the atmosphere globally and in the Mediterranean Basin.
Fig. 2: Evolution of the Mediterranean regional climate towards warmer and drier conditions.
Fig. 3: Annual natural renewable water resources in the main Mediterranean watersheds.

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Acknowledgements

This work has benefited from discussions with V. Alary (CIRAD, France), W.W.L. Cheung (Univ. British Columbia, Canada), K. Radunsky (Umweltbundesamt, Austria), J. Le Tellier (Plan Bleu, France), C. Webster (MedPAN, France) and many participants at five MedECC workshops between October 2016 and April 2018. Coordination was supported by the Laboratory of Excellence OT-Med (A*MIdex project no. 11-IDEX-0001-02).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. IMBE, Aix Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, Avignon University, Aix-en-Provence, France

    Wolfgang Cramer

  2. Aix Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, INRA, College de France, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France

    Joël Guiot

  3. International Centre for Water Resources and Global Change, UNESCO, Federal Institute of Hydrology, Koblenz, Germany

    Marianela Fader

  4. Institut Ciències del Mar, CSIC, Barcelona, Spain

    Joaquim Garrabou

  5. Aix Marseille University, Université de Toulon, CNRS, IRD, MIO, Marseille, France

    Joaquim Garrabou

  6. Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche, Villefranche-sur-mer, France

    Jean-Pierre Gattuso

  7. Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, Paris, France

    Jean-Pierre Gattuso

  8. Department of Agricultural Economics, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain

    Ana Iglesias

  9. Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus

    Manfred A. Lange

  10. DiSTeBA, University of Salento, Lecce, Italy

    Piero Lionello

  11. CMCC, Lecce, Italy

    Piero Lionello

  12. Department of Applied Physics, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain

    Maria Carmen Llasat

  13. Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel

    Shlomit Paz

  14. Global Ecology Unit, CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Barcelona, Spain

    Josep Peñuelas

  15. CREAF, Barcelona, Spain

    Josep Peñuelas

  16. Faculté des Sciences, Université. Mohammed V, Rabat, Morocco

    Maria Snoussi

  17. European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy

    Andrea Toreti

  18. School of Law, Hong Kong City University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong

    Michael N. Tsimplis

  19. Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Geography, Justus-Liebig Universität Gießen, Gießen, Germany

    Elena Xoplaki

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  1. Wolfgang Cramer
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  2. Joël Guiot
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Contributions

W.C. and J.G. developed the assessment protocol and convened the author team. All authors contributed sectoral knowledge and text. W.C. wrote the paper.

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Correspondence to Wolfgang Cramer.

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Cramer, W., Guiot, J., Fader, M. et al. Climate change and interconnected risks to sustainable development in the Mediterranean. Nature Clim Change 8, 972–980 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0299-2

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