GREEN JOBS FOR YOUTH How many youth hold green jobs? Will more green jobs mean more jobs for youth? Will green jobs deliver for young men and women? An expanded analysis of youth in the green economy June 2012 Kyle Gracey Michael Davidson Interest in green jobs has grown dramatically in the last decade, and so has the number of studies around the world looking at the number and types of green jobs. Very few studies have looked at the demographics, however, of future and current green jobs holders, and none has asked how many young people hold or might hold green jobs. This is in spite of an economic crisis in which youth unemployment reached an all-time high in the United States of nearly 20%. By comparing the occupations with the most green jobs with those that employ the most youth, we find that there is a somewhat negative relationship: on average, youth jobs will likely not be green jobs. However, this varies by occupation, with some occupations, particularly office and administrative jobs, for example, having about 14% of all clean economy jobs and about 14% of all youth jobs. We estimate that roughly 11% of all green jobs are held by youth. Male youth seem to benefit much more, proportionately. However, since green jobs are expected to create more jobs overall in the economy compared to equal investments or policies designed to support fossil fuels, and youth have expressed a strong interest in renewable energy and fighting climate change, we expect youth (both male and female) to benefit nonetheless from green jobs programs. Given the uncertainties and assumptions in youth green jobs data, future green jobs studies and policies should consider the employment potential across various demographics, including across different ages and genders of workers. We also recommend increased education, internship opportunities, and support for youth entrepreneurs, scientists, and engineers. This report was originally prepared for Sustainlabour for their Dialogue on Global Sustainability: Building a green economy through decent work – A new paradigm for Employment, Social Inclusion and Poverty Eradication in a Sustainable Planet, held April 12, 2011, in Madrid, Spain. It has been revised to reflect recent data from the Brookings Institution on overall U.S. clean economy jobs, clean water jobs from a Green for All report, and gender data. Kyle Gracey is a Research Scientist and Science Coordinator at Global Footprint Network. He also helps to coordinate youth participation toward the 2012 United Nations sustainable development conference, Rio+20. He is a current board member and past chair of SustainUS: U.S. Youth for Sustainable Development, having first become involved with them while working on youth employment policies at the UN Commission for Social Development. He worked in the communications office for U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden, where his duties included analysis and speechwriting about job creation via the renewable energy provisions of the U.S. economic recovery law. His M.S. thesis at The University of Chicago analyzed and forecasted the gender, racial, and ethnic demographics of U.S. green jobs. Contact him at gracey@uchicago.edu. Michael Davidson is the US-China Climate Policy Coordinator at the Natural Resources Defense Council in Washington, DC, where he examines the dynamic U.S.-China energy and environment relationship and supports NRDC’s Earth Summit 2012 campaign. In 2008-9, he was the recipient of a Fulbright Fellowship to Tsinghua University in Beijing to research distributed renewable energy systems. He holds degrees in Physics and Japanese Studies from Case Western Reserve University. Contact him at mdavidson@nrdc.org. This report is the product of the authors alone and does not necessarily represent the position of any affiliated organizations. Photo credit: UOPowerShift09 via Flickr 1. An introduction to youth unemployment During the height of the economic recession in 2009, globally 81 million young people aged 1524 were unemployed. The youth unemployment rate rose from the pre-crisis 2007 level of 11.9% to 13%, leaving 7.8 million additional youth without work. This increase was compounded by a larger decline over the last decade in labor force participation, where youth actively participating in labor markets shrank 4% to 50.8% in 2008. All told, the economic recession has significantly impacted the livelihoods of young people around the world and thus threatened the economies and societies that they support1. Youth unemployment differs substantially from adult unemployment in both cause and solution. There are legitimate supply-side considerations for higher rates among youth, such as temporary voluntary unemployment while gaining experience, and forgoing employment to continue education. These youth depend on support structures – e.g., family and government assistance – but this is lacking in many developing countries, and youth entry into the workforce is unduly hindered. A labor market bias against youth also exists. Employers are more likely to terminate youth employees because of less investment in jobs skills and the criteria for unemployment benefits in many countries that often exclude recent hires2. Youth can be a great burden on societies when idle, but if given appropriate work they can also be key drivers of economic growth. This untapped potential is particularly striking in developing countries, where unemployment tends to increase with education levels. Well-educated young people facing discrimination as well as poorly designed job growth policies in these countries become an even greater burden to society when the costs of education are factored in, and may travel overseas to find work, reinforcing the “brain drain” of talent out of under-served communities3. In the United States, youth unemployment peaked at 19.1% in July 2010, an all-time high. Because of the economic recession, this was also the first time that youth labor force participation dropped below 50% during July. Jobs were lost proportionately throughout the economy, indicating that the youth are particularly responsive to economy-wide fluctuations4. 2. The green jobs potential in the U.S. Before 2000, very few studies examined the potential of green jobs. Since 2000, however, the number of studies examining the employment potential of green jobs increased dramatically. Several dozen green jobs studies now exist in English alone, as well as many others written in a variety of languages and focusing on numerous parts of the world. English-language green jobs studies5 have been prepared by a wide range of analysts – 1 International Labour Office. 2010. Global Employment Trends for Youth. Available at http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/---emp_elm/--trends/documents/publication/wcms_143349.pdf. Accessed April 11, 2011. 2 Ibid. 3 Ibid. 4 2010. Employment and Unemployment Among Youth Summary. Washington: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Available at http://bls.gov/news.release/youth.nr0.htm. Accessed April 11, 2011. 5 Several lists of green jobs studies can be found in the following sources, though none provide a comprehensive government agencies, industry associations (particularly renewable energy associations), think tanks, and university academics. Their scope ranges everywhere from single-state impacts, to national studies, to global estimates. Their approaches also vary significantly, from estimating the jobs created by large cash investments in renewable energy generation (especially versus an equivalent investment in fossil fuels), the impact or projected impact of specific legislation or proposed legislation (such as greenhouse gas limits, renewable portfolio standards, or economic recovery spending), to simply cataloging the number of green jobs in previous years. While not without criticism6, and so different in their approaches and scopes that they cannot easily be compared, the studies' conclusions have nonetheless reported generally encouraging conclusions for the potential of green jobs to generate significant numbers of jobs, particularly more jobs than comparable investments or policies directed toward fossil fuel jobs. For example, one estimate of a $100 billion “green recovery program,” versus an equal investment in the oil industry, predicts the green recovery program would generate 1.5 million more jobs7. This is because green industries, such as solar panel or wind turbine production, tend to be relatively more labor intensive than comparable fossil fuel jobs, such as coal mining, which are more heavily mechanized. Or, they tend to have a very similar, and also labor intensive, employment profile compared to the industry they replace (traditional building construction replaced by energy efficient building construction will still require many carpenters, electricians, etc., for example). What green jobs studies have not investigated much, however, are many of the demographics of current (and likely future) green jobs holders8. This is especially true for race, gender, age, and ethnicity. At least one study9 has at least looked at education and income levels of potential green jobs holders, concluding that low-income (and, indirectly, minority) workers would likely have more job opportunities overall if there were more green jobs. Another analysis10 of several prior green jobs studies found mixed but overall positive employment benefits for black, Asian, female, and Latino/Hispanic workers, relative to whites and males, both in the 2000's and possibly through 2018. Beyond these two studies, and a recent effort we analyze later in this 6 7 8 9 10 listing: 2009. Review of Green Jobs. Washington: Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Available at http://www.pewclimate.org/review-greenjobs. Accessed April 11, 2011. Kammen, Daniel M., Kamal Kapadia, and Matthias Fripp. 2006. Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Generate? Berkeley: Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory: University of California, Berkeley. Available at http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~rael/papers.html. Accessed April 11, 2011. Center for Energy Economics. 2008. Green Jobs: A Review of Recent Studies. Austin: The University of Texas at Austin. Pollin, Robert, and Jeanette Wicks-Lim. 2008. Job Opportunities for the Green Economy: A State-By-State Picture of Occupations that Gain from Green Investments. Amherst, MA: Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Gracey, Kyle. 2011. Is This the Face of Green Jobs? Green Economy. Washington: Worldwatch Institute. Available at http://blogs.worldwatch.org/greeneconomy/is-this-the-face-of-green-jobs/. Accessed April 11, 2011. Pollin, Robert, Jeannette Wicks-Lim, and Heidi Garrett-Peltier. 2009. Green Prosperity: How Clean-Energy Policies Can Fight Poverty and Raise Living Standards in the United States. Amherst, MA: Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Available at http://www.greenforall.org/resources/green-prosperity/green-prosperity/download/. Accessed April 11, 2011. Gracey, Kyle. 2010. Green Jobs: Who Benefits? Demographic Forecasting of Job Creation in U.S. Green Jobs Studies. Masters Thesis. Chicago: The University of Chicago. Available at http://chicago.academia.edu/KyleGracey/Papers/169999/Green_Jobs_Who_Benefits_Demographic_Forecasting _of_Job_Creation_in_U.S._Green_Jobs_Studies. Accessed April 11, 2011. report, however, little work has been done on green jobs demographics, at least in the United States. No previous studies have analyzed youth employment, to the authors' knowledge. Neither have any considered the distribution of youth green jobs between women and men. 3. How many youth have green jobs? If there are no studies specifically analyzing the number of youth holding green jobs, existing sources of labor data still allow us to make some very rough estimates. In the United States of America, the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provides the most comprehensive data on workers and their demographics, particularly through their Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly and annual statistical survey of national employment11. CPS provides data on worker gender, race, Latino or Hispanic ethnicity, detailed industry category, detailed job category, and more12, including unpublished tables with age13. Separately, CPS has overall data on employment or unemployment by age (16 years old and above)14. It shows that youth ages 16 through 29 experienced higher levels of unemployment in 2010 than the overall population (24.4% for 16-19 years old, 14.6% for 20-24 years old, and 10.3% for 2529 years old, compared to 7.3% for 35-44 years old, and 7.1% for 45-54 years old)15. BLS also does not have any data on employment in green jobs, let alone green jobs by age. BLS has developed a comprehensive set of definitions and categories of occupation and industry types that include green jobs, and is in the process of conducting its first statistical sampling of total green jobs, which is expected to be released in 2012. BLS will not provide demographic distributions of green jobs, however16. Fortunately, the BLS data for detailed occupations by age, along with a recent study by the Brookings Institution17, provides enough information to estimate the distribution and share of youth green jobs, especially in comparison to green jobs overall. The Brookings report organizes occupations by what fraction of all the “clean economy” (i.e. green) jobs are in that occupation. We can compare this to the number of youth jobs – green and 11 2011. Current Population Survey. Washington: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Available at http://www.bls.gov/cps. Accessed April 6, 2011. 12 2011. Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey. Washington: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Available at http://bls.gov/cps/tables.htm. Accessed February 20, 2012. (Especially tables 11 and 18) 13 2012. Table 15. Employed persons by detailed occupation, sex, and age, Annual Average 2011. Washington: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unpublished work tables from the Current Population Survey. Received March 1, 2012. 14 2011. Annual Averages: Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population by age, sex, and race. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Washington: Government Printing Office. Available at http://bls.gov/cps/cpsaat3.pdf. Accessed May 19, 2012. 15 Ibid. 16 2011. Measuring Green Jobs. Washington: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Available at http://bls.gov/green. Accessed on April 6, 2011. 17 Muro, Mark, Jonathan Rothwell, and Devashree Saha. 2011. Sizing the Clean Economy. Washington: Brookings Institution. Available at http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Series/resources/0713_clean_economy.pdf. Accessed October 1, 2011. not green – that are in the same occupation. If we put the occupations with the biggest shares of all clean economy jobs at the top, we can see if these are also the occupations that most youth work in. This is shown in Table 1. Table 1: Occupations With the Biggest Share of All Green Jobs in the Economy (2011) Share of All Share of All Clean Economy Youth Jobs Occupations - Green and Occupation (%) Not (%) Transportation and material moving occupations Production occupations Office and administrative support occupations Total of Top 3 Construction and extraction occupations Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations Business & financial Management Architecture & engineering Protective service occupations Sales and related occupations Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations Life, physical, & social science Computer & Math Community and social services occupations Healthcare practitioner & technical Personal care and service occupations Legal Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations Art, design, entertainment, sports, & media Total of Bottom 3 Education, training, & library Food preparation and serving related occupations Healthcare support occupations 19.3 15.9 14.1 6.4 4.9 13.5 49.3 24.8 7.2 6.2 5.8 5.7 5.7 4.5 3.4 3.4 2.3 2.1 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 4.1 2.7 2.0 2.8 0.8 2.1 18.0 3.7 0.5 1.2 0.8 2.4 5.9 0.3 1.4 2.0 1.1 24.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 3.9 17.5 3.2 Source: Muro, Mark, Jonathan Rothwell, and Devashree Saha. 2011. Sizing the Clean Economy. Washington: Brookings Institution. Available at http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Series/resources/0713_clean_economy.pdf. Accessed October 1, 2011. Source: 2012. Table 15. Employed persons by detailed occupation, sex, and age, Annual Average 2011. Washington: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unpublished work tables from the Current Population Survey. Received March 1, 2011. The Top 3 occupations have almost half of all the clean economy jobs, but only a quarter of all of the youth jobs. That is about the same number of youth jobs as the Bottom 3 occupations that have the least green jobs. So, while young people do seem to work in some of the same occupations that have a lot of green jobs, they also work in equal numbers in occupations that have very few green jobs. Another way to organize this information is to sort the occupations based on which employ the largest fraction of the youth labor force. This is presented as Table 2. Table 2: Occupations Where the Most Youth in the Economy Work (2011) Share of All Share of All Clean Economy Youth Jobs Occupations Green and Not Occupation (%) (%) Sales and related occupations Food preparation and serving related occupations Office and administrative support occupations Total of Top 3 Transportation and material moving occupations Personal care and service occupations Production occupations Construction and extraction occupations Education, training, & library Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations Healthcare support occupations Management Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations Healthcare practitioner & technical Protective service occupations Business & financial Art, design, entertainment, sports, & media Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations Computer & Math Architecture & engineering Community and social services occupations Life, physical, & social science Legal 3.4 0.4 14.1 18.0 17.5 13.5 17.9 49.0 19.3 1.2 15.9 7.2 0.4 6.4 5.9 4.9 4.1 3.9 3.4 0.3 5.7 6.2 1.2 4.5 5.8 0.6 0.7 2.1 5.7 1.4 2.3 0.7 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 Source: Muro, Mark, Jonathan Rothwell, and Devashree Saha. 2011. Sizing the Clean Economy. Washington: Brookings Institution. Available at http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Series/resources/0713_clean_economy.pdf. Accessed October 1, 2011. Source: 2012. Table 15. Employed persons by detailed occupation, sex, and age, Annual Average 2011. Washington: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unpublished work tables from the Current Population Survey. Received March 1, 2012. Table 2 presents a similar story – some occupations with a lot of the green jobs also have fairly large numbers of youth workers, but overall the occupations with the most youth workers (the Top 3 having 50% of all youth jobs) do not have a large share of all green jobs (the Top 3 have about 18%). Instead of looking at what fraction of all youth jobs are in a certain occupation, we can look at what fraction of the jobs in that occupation are held by youth. That is, while only 1.2% of all jobs that youth have are Computer & Math jobs, the same BLS data tells us that 5.9% of all Computer & Math jobs are held by youth. In the first case, we are comparing youth jobs against other youth jobs in other occupations. In the second case, we are comparing youth jobs in one occupation with the same occupation of jobs held by people of all other ages. This alternative way of looking at youth employment allows us to estimate the total number of green jobs that are held by youth. If we assume18 that 5.9% of all Computer & Math jobs that are green jobs are held by youth, the same way that 5.9% of all Computer & Math jobs, green and not, are held by youth, and the Brookings data tells us that 2.1% of all clean economy jobs are in Computer & Math occupations, multiplying these two numbers together lets us estimate that about 0.1% of all green jobs in the Computer & Math occupation are held by youth. Adding up these youth green jobs across all occupation categories gives us an estimate for the percentage of all green jobs that are held by youth. This is shown in Table 3. Table 3: Estimated Share of All Clean Economy Jobs Held by Youth, by Occupation (2011) Occupation Share of All Clean Economy Occupation s (%) さHigh Wage/High Skilled Occupationsざ Management 5.7 Legal 0.7 Computer & Math 2.1 Architecture & engineering 5.7 Business & financial 5.8 Life, physical, & social science 2.3 Healthcare practitioner & technical 1.2 Education, training, & library 0.4 Art, design, entertainment, sports, & media 0.6 さModerate Wage/Moderate Skill Occupationsざ Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 6.2 Community and social services occupations 1.4 Construction and extraction occupations 7.2 Protective service occupations 4.5 Office and administrative support occupations 14.1 Production occupations 15.9 Transportation and material moving occupations 19.3 さLow Wage/Low Skill Occupationsざ Healthcare support occupations 0.3 Sales and related occupations 3.4 18 Share of Occupatio n Held by Youth (%) Estimate d Share of Clean Economy Jobs Held by Youth (%) 3.2 2.5 5.9 5.3 5.4 6.9 5.5 7.8 12.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 9.6 5.9 10.0 11.1 12.9 10.5 13.4 0.6 0.1 0.7 0.5 1.8 1.7 2.6 16.6 20.3 0.0 0.7 We are not aware of any studies that look at whether the distribution of green jobs across ages (or other demographics) within an occupation differs from all jobs or non-green jobs. Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations Personal care and service occupations Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations Food preparation and serving related occupations 3.4 1.2 0.7 0.4 11.8 20.5 23.6 39.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 Total 102.5 10.9 Source: Muro, Mark, Jonathan Rothwell, and Devashree Saha. 2011. Sizing the Clean Economy. Washington: Brookings Institution. Available at http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Series/resources/0713_clean_economy.pdf. Accessed October 1, 2011. Source: 2012. Table 15. Employed persons by detailed occupation, sex, and age, Annual Average 2011. Washington: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unpublished work tables from the Current Population Survey. Received March 1, 2012. Brookings data sums to more than 100% due to rounding. The data suggest that about 10.9% of all green jobs in the U.S.A. are held by youth. In comparison, about 12.4% of all jobs in the U.S. economy are held by youth 16-24. So, while youth are underrepresented in the green economy compared to the overall economy, they are not drastically so. Although not a definitive quantification of youth employment in green jobs, and not applicable beyond the United States, the evidence suggests that youth will not be the largest beneficiaries of a growth in green jobs, but will definitely benefit some, since they do occupy some of the categories, particularly office workers and administration positions, that also have some of the most green jobs opportunities. It is possible that the green jobs employment profile of youth 2529 is larger. This is likely, given that the overall demographic and employment profile of these older youth is comparatively closer to that of workers 30-6419, the group most likely to hold jobs in the industries with the most green jobs firms. Unfortunately, BLS data is not available to confirm or refute this. 4. Indirect and induced youth jobs In addition to the jobs created directly through investments in green industries, there are numerous jobs that will be created as an indirect result of the increased economic activity. Broadly, the employment effects are classified into (i) direct jobs, (ii) indirect jobs, (iii) induced jobs, and (iv) savings-induced jobs (see Table 5). Many of the existing green jobs studies cited above differentiate direct and indirect jobs, while neglecting induced jobs. Table 5. Methods of job creation from green investments. Job Type Description Typical Sector Direct Construction, maintenance and associated services of green industries (“green jobs”) Construction, Professional services Indirect Production of intermediate goods and services for green industries Manufacturing, Professional services 19 2011. Annual Averages: Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population by age, sex, and race. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Washington: Government Printing Office. Available at http://bls.gov/cps/cpsaat3.pdf. Accessed May 19, 2012. Induced Expansion from increased economic activity from the above two wage-earners Economy-wide Savings-Induced Expansion from redirected consumer spending, i.e., energy savings from efficiency improvements Economy-wide Direct jobs are those that are most properly called green jobs, in that the job is actually producing an environmentally friendly good or service. Another category – indirect jobs – is from supportive services to the companies and individuals engaged in direct green jobs, and otherwise jobs due to spending throughout the economy by green jobs companies. These are often professional services and manufacturing jobs. The third category is induced jobs, and represents positions created by green jobs employees spending their wages throughout the wider economy. These include youth-heavy jobs like retail and food service, and extend to other jobs throughout the economy20. When these three effects are taken into account, investments in clean energy are estimated to create three times as many jobs as equivalent investments in the fossil fuel sectors21. Another type of induced job – savings-induced jobs – is even more important when considering energy efficiency improvements. For example, from the saved money on reduced energy bills, consumers will redirect spending to other goods and services. Since fossil fuel sectors are largely intensive in capital and not in labor, they will create fewer jobs through increased discretionary spending in the wider economy. Efficiency programs in California from 1972-2006, for example, saved over $56 billion, which led to $45 billion in increased payrolls for 1.5 million full-time new jobs (net of losses in traditional energy sectors). Since youth are employed heavily in the service sector, approximately 74% in 200922, they will on average benefit more from induced jobs due to green investments. Similarly, youth are disproportionately underemployed in mining, utilities and oil and gas extraction industries23. Because overall youth employment levels respond acutely to economy-wide fluctuations, they stand to benefit most from induced jobs through a general pick-up in economic activity. While there is no quantitative data to show whether in a given industry green jobs will be taken up by youth in higher proportions compared to traditional jobs, numerous polling results demonstrate that environmental issues rank high on the list of priorities of youth. Youth aged 1829 were 75% in favor of a bill proposed in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2009 that would have implemented a cap-and-trade program of limiting greenhouse gas emissions24. Similarly, youth favor investments in green energy, with a majority saying they would be much more likely to support a Congressional candidate that supported renewable energy25. In terms of education, 64% of incoming undergraduates and their parents consider a school’s environmental 20 See page 25 for one example of these three job categories in an actual study: Booz Allen Hamilton. 2009. Green Jobs Study. Washington: U.S. Green Building Council. 21 Pollin, Robert. 22 2010. Washington: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Available at http://bls.gov/news.release/youth.t03.htm. Accessed on April 6, 2011. 23 Ibid. 2011. Current Population Survey. (Table 17) 24 Benenson Strategy Group. September 15, 2009. Youth poll results. Available at http://www.bsgco.com/releases/ACES_Release.pdf. Accessed April 11, 2011. 25 Anzalone Liszt Research. September 15, 2010. Young adults hold key to keeping democratic majority. Available at http://www.rockthevote.com/assets/publications/research/2010/2010-demmemo.pdf. Accessed April 11, 2011. commitment a major factor in deciding where to attend26. 5. The Green Jobs Gender Gap While this research presents an overall picture of how investments in green jobs could benefit youth, this says nothing about which youth will benefit, and if the benefits will be spread proportionally among youth. As a first step to answering this question for U.S. youth, this expanded analysis presents new data on the estimated current gender distribution of clean economy jobs. The source data for this estimation is the same CPS tables that inform Tables 1-3. Unfortunately, youth data broken down by race or other demographics is not readily available at this time. Table 5 presents the situation for 2011. Table 6: Estimated Share of All Clean Economy Jobs Held by Youth, by Occupation & Gender Occupation Share of All Clean Economy Occupations (%) Estimated Share of Clean Economy Jobs Held by Youth (%) さHigh Wage/High Skilled Occupationsざ Management 5.7 Legal 0.7 Computer & Math 2.1 Architecture & engineering 5.7 Business & financial 5.8 Life, physical, & social science 2.3 Healthcare practitioner & technical 1.2 Education, training, & library 0.4 Art, design, entertainment, sports, & media 0.6 さModerate Wage/Moderate Skill Occupationsざ Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 6.2 Community and social services occupations 1.4 Construction and extraction occupations 7.2 Protective service occupations 4.5 Office and administrative support occupations 14.1 Production occupations 15.9 Transportation and material moving occupations 19.3 さLow Wage/Low Skill Occupationsざ Healthcare support occupations 0.3 Held by Male Youth (%) Held by Female Youth (%) 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.7 0.5 1.8 1.7 2.6 0.6 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 26 The Princeton Review. 2010. College Hopes and Worries Survey Report. Available at http://www.princetonreview.com/uploadedFiles/Test_Preparation/Hopes_and_Worries/HopeAndWorries_Full%2 0Report.pdf. Accessed April 11, 2011. Sales and related occupations Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations Personal care and service occupations Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations Food preparation and serving related occupations Total Total Share of All Jobs in Economy Held by Youth 3.4 0.7 0.3 0.4 3.4 1.2 0.7 0.4 102.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 10.9 12.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.5 6.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 3.5 6.0 Source: Muro, Mark, Jonathan Rothwell, and Devashree Saha. 2011. Sizing the Clean Economy. Washington: Brookings Institution. Available at http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Series/resources/0713_clean_economy.pdf. Accessed October 1, 2011. Source: 2012. Table 15. Employed persons by detailed occupation, sex, and age, Annual Average 2011. Washington: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unpublished work tables from the Current Population Survey. Received March 1, 2012. Brookings data sums to more than 100% due to rounding. For youth, this analysis suggests that men will benefit proportionally more from clean economy job creation than women, at least for direct jobs. While male and female youth have close to equal (52% & 48%, respectively) shares of all youth jobs in the economy, male youth have more than double the number of clean economy jobs than females (68% vs. 32%). Occupations with a large number of green jobs tend to employ more men than women. This also appears to be true for older workers27. It’s possible that the impact of indirect, induced, and savings-induced job creation from green jobs policies and investments will balance out, or even reverse, this skew toward young male workers. However, we know of no existing analysis on this question. Further, if investments in green jobs versus other types of jobs tend to generate more jobs overall in the economy, this could easily mean that women youth will still see a net increase in job opportunities, though men may benefit more. 6. Clean Water Jobs, Youth, and Gender A recent study by Green For All28 marks one of the few attempts to look at the demographics of green jobs, specifically U.S. jobs that help to provide clean water and manage stormwater. While finding a positive economic and jobs impact for large investments in water infrastructure (greater than the economic impact of various tax cuts), it also examines the impact on water infrastructure job creation across men and women and white and non-white workers, as well as union jobs and jobs not requiring a college degree. It does not examine jobs across age ranges. Fortunately, since the job categories are taken from the Current Population Survey, we were able to examine how many of these jobs might be held by youth, assuming overall youth participation in these professions is the same as for the clean water and stormwater management-specific jobs that this report examines. We were also able to estimate jobs for male youth and female youth separately. Table 4 presents our results: 27 Gracey, Kyle. 2011. Is This the Face of Green Jobs? Green Economy. Washington: Worldwatch Institute. Available at http://blogs.worldwatch.org/greeneconomy/is-this-the-face-of-green-jobs/. Accessed April 11, 2011. 28 Gordon, Emily, Jeremy Hays, Ethan Pollack, Daniel Sanchez, and Jason Walsh.. 2011. Water Works: Rebuilding Infrastructure, Creating Jobs, Greening the Environment. Oakland, CA:Green For All. Available online at: http://www.greenforall.org/resources/water-works (accessed May 22, 2012). Table 4: Youth Employment Estimates by Gender (2011), based on “Water Works” 2011 % of Occupation Held by Youth % That Are Male Youth 16-24 % That Are Female Youth 16-24 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 926 45 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 634 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 70 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 21 6.7% 30.2% 9.1% 6.4% 30.2% 9.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 519 63 11 Occupation Construction Managers Environmental engineers First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers Cement masons, concrete finishers, and terrazzo workers Paving, surfacing, and tamping equipment operators Pipelayers, plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters Helpers, construction trades Septic tank servicers and sewer pipe cleaners Water and liquid waste treatment plant and system operators Maintenance and Repair Workers, General Welding, soldering, and brazing workers Machinists Grounds maintenance workers Construction laborers Total Overall U.S. Economy Total Employment Age 16+ (Thousands) 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 71 5.5% 5.2% 0.5% 422 11.7% 11.3% 0.4% 505 7.9% 7.9% 0.2% 419 18.9% 18.0% 0.8% 1,247 15.4% 15.0% 0.5% 1,253 10.4% 10.0% 0.4% 6,206 12.4% 6.4% 6.0% 139,869 Numbers may not add up exactly due to rounding Similar to other studies, the results suggest that youth would benefit from this type of green job creation, though proportionally a little less than for some other age ranges. However, it also suggests that the vast majority of these benefits would go to male youth. 7. Conclusions and recommendations A survey of several dozen green jobs studies in English show that the benefits of promoting environmentally-friendly goods and services are great. When the direct as well as indirect and induced effects are considered, investments in clean energy, for example, are estimated to create three times as many jobs as fossil fuel investments. However, no studies prior to ours have analyzed the effect of these policies on various demographics, including young workers. Using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data on industries and occupations that favor green jobs as well as youth employment data in those industries, the authors concluded that youth will on average not have as much direct benefit from green jobs programs compared to adult workers. However, as numerous studies on the indirect and induced effects of green jobs investments have shown, there are benefits economy-wide from these programs, and especially in youth-heavy service occupations. Combined with the fact that youth are disproportionately underemployed in fossil fuel industries, and they are on average more environmentally-conscious, youth are more likely to embrace green jobs. Male youth, however, may benefit disproportionately from this job creation compared to female youth, though both genders are likely to see more jobs in total. Based on this preliminary analysis, governments should take the following steps in order to ensure that youth reach their full potential to benefit from the green economy transition. These may not be equally applicable in all countries, but for at least the United States are a valuable place to start: 1. Consider the impacts of green jobs policies on youth unemployment. Job creation programs need to be designed to mitigate the global economic downturn’s disproportionate impact on youth. Green jobs programs should be no different. There is ample evidence that youth will not necessarily benefit equally from the proliferation of green jobs initiatives around the world. 2. Record age and gender data (and other demographics) in green jobs statistics. Policies cannot fix what they cannot measure. The lack of reliable information on green jobs holders is a fundamental obstacle to defining effective green jobs programs. Labor statistics agencies should carefully track these data. In the U.S., the BLS should expand its current green jobs initiative to provide a more detailed demographic breakdown, including categories such as age, race, ethnicity, and gender, among others. 3. Expand environmental-friendly curricula in secondary and higher education. In order to speed the transition to a green economy, educational institutions should provide appropriate knowledge and tools to youth. Since youth are already passionate about environmental issues, this is a very effective way for professional development of potential green jobs holders. 4. Create a youth green bank to support green entrepreneurs. Recent graduates from sustainability programs are some of the best equipped to jump-start a green economy because of their interest in environmental issues and up-to-date education in green technology solutions. Governments can provide seed funding in order to attract private capital in support of promising young green entrepreneurs. 5. Encourage partnerships between green enterprises and universities to offer internships and summer trainings to youth. Young workers benefit greatly when entering the workforce already with practical experience in the field. Not only will youth benefit, governments’ green economy agendas are more likely to succeed with well-prepared workers. Companies and universities should partner to train the next generation of environmental youth. Above all, this preliminary analysis, and our two studies before it, indicate that more research is needed to determine the prospects for youth employment in a green economy. The authors believe that governments and research institutes should consider more carefully age and gender demographics when designing green jobs policies. Appendix 1: Table of Calculations Occupation Management Legal Computer & Math Architecture & engineering Business & financial Life, physical, & social science Healthcare practitioner & technical Education, training, & library Art, design, entertainment, sports, & media Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations Community and social services occupations Construction and extraction occupations Protective service occupations Office and administrative support occupations Production occupations Transportation and material moving occupations Healthcare support occupations Sales and related occupations Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance Share of All Clean Economy Occupations (%) Share of All Youth (16-24) Jobs Green and Not (%) Share of Occupation Held by Youth (%) High Wage/High Skilled Occupations 5.7 2.8 3.2 0.7 0.3 2.5 2.1 1.2 5.9 5.7 0.8 5.3 5.8 2.0 5.4 2.3 0.5 6.9 1.2 2.4 5.5 0.4 3.9 7.8 0.6 2.0 12.3 Moderate Wage/Moderate Skill Occupations 6.2 2.7 9.6 1.4 0.8 5.9 7.2 4.1 10.0 4.5 2.1 11.1 14.1 13.5 12.9 15.9 4.9 10.5 19.3 6.4 13.4 Low Wage/Low Skill Occupations 0.3 3.2 16.6 3.4 18.0 20.3 3.4 3.7 11.8 Held by Male Youth (%) Held by Female Youth (%) Estimated Share of Clean Economy Jobs Held by Youth (%) 1.8 0.8 4.8 4.0 2.5 3.9 1.4 2.0 6.4 1.4 1.7 1.1 1.3 2.9 2.9 4.1 5.8 5.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2 2.0 9.8 7.8 5.2 8.0 11.5 0.4 4.0 0.3 3.3 7.9 2.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.7 0.5 1.8 1.7 2.6 0.6 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.4 3.1 8.1 8.6 13.5 12.3 3.2 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.1 Held by Male Youth (%) Held by Female Youth (%) occupations Personal care and service occupations Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations Food preparation and serving related occupations Total Total Share of All Jobs in Economy Held by Youth 1.2 0.7 0.4 102.5 5.9 1.4 17.5 100.0 20.5 23.6 39.2 12.4 5.3 18.9 18.6 6.4 15.2 4.7 20.5 6.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 10.9 12.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.5 6.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 3.5 6.0